As a member of the UK and Dutch aviation communities, I have good access to information and can confirm from multiple sources that the reason for the crash of flight 1951 was fuel starvation.
The aircrew were aware of their severe lack of fuel, which is corroborated by those ATC recordings available, where a controller remarks that the aircraft was approaching it’s final approach vector at high speed. Unfortunately Schiphol Tower ATC recordings were pulled off line within 10 minutes after the incident, but it is likely they would reveal the crew running out of fuel, attempting to gain airspeed by pitching down, until the airspeed was simply insufficient to keep the aircraft aloft.
Passenger accounts reveal they ‘dropped out of the sky’.
With the aircraft broken into three pieces, both engines sheared off, yet no fire, the evidence appears to back up my sources claims.
This Tragedy has now become a political incident, as Turkish Airways is Turkey’s state owned and operated airline. Accusations would not be prudent. Stay tuned.
Will do.
Could be one of the first incidents of airlines trying to ride out the terrible times by fueling at the minimum required. Interesting to see what Turkish airlines is paying for fuel. Did they hedge fuel costs at the wrong time and now trying to conserve ?
Tjeez, was there no Hudson option possible on this? I mean gliding the plain down. Or is it simply to low speed to do that. I am just asking as a rooky in airplnes. What are the procedures anyway? Did the pilots made the right decision?
Regrdas, Peter
@Aaron, wow, didn’t even think of that yet.. Though I heard those stories before. Hmm.. interesting..
CNN was speculation that. I was watching it all day.
The question also can be how long had the plane to waite before he could start final landing?
To little fuel or to long waiting. Nice situation.
Running out of fuel was my first thought too. I base my guess on the years of listening to my old man as he talked about aircraft crashes. He was an A&P mechanic (when that meant something) for UAL for 35 years (before they became the embarrassment they are now). Yes, I used the Laporte defense. It makes me an expert…
There were rumors about that and some avation expert on RTL7 (dutch newschannel) noted that as one of the options. A plane doesn’t just drop down like that. It would really suck if those 10 people died en 50 got seriously injured because Turkish Airlines wouldn’t want to fill up their tanks because of moneysaving.
Turkey doesn’t want that on their record, especially since they want to join the EU (which is totally unacceptable in the first place).
I hope this isn’t true, though it’s very like to be. Adam knows what he’s saying and I believe that he knows a ton of people in aviation who could tell more about this.
I dugg this. http://digg.com/world_news/Reason_for_Turkish_Air_1951_Schiphol_Crash
As has been said, if 10 people died and dozens injured because of someone trying to skimp on fuel costs, there’ll be a huge lawsuit, and rightly so. If this turns out to be the case, incidents like this should never be repeated.
It’s highly improbable that both engines stops at the same time because of fuel lack…
3000 kg of fuel left…
[...] anyone have any thoughts on this? [...]
it is IMPOSSIBLE that this is a matter of fuel starvation. There would still be explosive gases in all the fuel lines if that were the case, leading to an immediate explosion on impact. Also the fact that the pilot executed a final manoevre more in line with being too low as opposed to being too slow, rules out this kind of presupposed nonsensae. Just because you know how to fly a copter, doesn’t mean you know how to fly a bus Adam
Adam, I think you are way off…..
Adam, you might be flying around in choppers and light aircraft but dont think that gives you any authority to post unfundamented gossip.
You can’t confirm anything as not even the Incident Investigation team has begun it’s investigation.
All gosip, rumour, brainfarts, mumbojumbo.
If you weren’t there, don’t pretend you were.
Unfundamented is right. You tell him.
Lets see what the investigation will say. I mean heating this up is not really a good idea. Specially since the pilotes can not defend themselves now, as they are DEAD.
If I was the pilot I wouldnve left Turkey if I knew I had too little ammount of fuel to make it. I cant believe they would fly out.
Shall we (for once) wait on something official, I know you dont tust authorities, but this is more gossip then facts…
Don’t the people in the aviation community rock. I’ve only got a VFR single engine rating, and i’m only checked out for one aircraft(Skyhawk172) i am confident i could be a great right seat for you. I have superior joint rolling skills and great connections in London as well as A-Dam(though who needs connections in Amsterdam) Let me know. Feeling Hezzellig:-)
This is pure speculation. and time will confirm that it is…
I am merely reporting on information passed on to me from souces who certainly can know. Think FIO@AMS would BS me?
This has nothing to do with my flying capability.
AC
Mr. Curry–
Thank you for your insights.
I heard some Air Traffic Control discussions at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7910801.stm
I saw aerial views at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7911050.stm which look like show the tail of the plane hitting the ground first – Is this inconsistent with “pitching down” as you opine? I don’t know, I’m not an air-person by any means.
Finally, I just thought you’d be interested in the caption for photograph #10 says: A *bank manager* who was a passenger on the plane says there were no emergency announcements. (emphasis added) http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/02/25/holland.crash/index.html#cnnSTCPhoto
Thanks for NA. I really enjoy the show and hope to hear more about this crash on it.
Cheers,
Mark
Some who listened to the ATC did mention Low Fuel was mentioned by pilot, now low fuel is not the same as out of fuel… But stil…
huhm.. will there be a third one.. I hope you are wrong this time..
I follow you in your theory regarding the lack of fuel.
grtz G
George_nl a.k.a. the Dutch Podaholic
Please don’t bring any speculation as the truth!
Passenger who was on board just told at Dutch tv show (Pauw & Witteman) the engines were definitely spinning until impact.
Also an eye-witness from the ground stated the plane was getting his attention because of the engine noise.
Pure speculation. No low fuel emergency was declared. Fumes are flammable too. This is all 1st grade bull. Not enough information is known at this point to draw any of these conclusions.
The FIO at AMS only files flightplans, does not have anything to do with live traffic.
Besides that, the FIO does not exist anymore since 4 years, it’s called FSC now.
There you go with your outdated info
There was nothing declared, not even a mayday was issued. The last thing they readback was the landingclearance. No transmission therafter whatsoever and no comments whatsoever about fuel
Low fuel I dont think so. If that were the case the crew would be well aware of the low fuel ahead of time and would have landed an airport not as far as Amsterdam.
Since wild and ill-informed speculation seems to be the order of the day – I think the crash was cased by space aliens.
I think you are a going into the cover of speculation with this reporting. There is absolutely no evidence that that fuel starvation was the cause of the crash. However, when the investigation progresses it will become clear what the inflight parameters were and investigators will report initial fault exemptions that may inform us more accurate.
There is information that the pilot had dumped excess fuel at sea, but the rules imply that a minimum of 30 – 45 minutes of fuel must remain on board for diversions. It is therefore nearly impossible for an aircraft to stall and drop out of the sky with both engines failing (according to reports – both engines shutoff at the same time) on fuel starvation.
Just wait for the official investigation. Speculation damages your reputation unless you show sources and/or express your opinion clearly.
best regards,
Aeronautical engineer – fellow Dutchman
@ Rob,
The 737 has NO fuel dumping facilities,only thing a 737 can do to get rid of exess fuel,is remain flying, and wait till they get to the MLW , and then they land.
Well, it doesn’t take a degree educated person to work out that the plane just ‘dropped’ out of the sky. The way the nose has broken away it due to sudden downforce of hitting the ground. If there was any sort of forward momentum, the wreckage would have been more widespread. As it is, the wreckage area is relatively compact. You are right in saying that we cannot speculate on lack of fuel, but the way the plane was ditched, is very odd indeed.
“Speculation damages your reputation” – that never stopped Adam from speculating, hahaha.
But seriously: I have heard that turbulences were the reason, and indeed I would like to know more in order to know whether I should avoid flights that use Boeing airplanes….
Hi Guys,
The best way in such accidents is to wait for people who’s job is to determine what went wrong (like NTSB in the US). As a ATPL pilot I have huge respect for Turkish colleagues.
Illu February 25, 2009 | 9:34 pm
“it is IMPOSSIBLE that this is a matter of fuel starvation. There would still be explosive gases in all the fuel lines if that were the case, leading to an immediate explosion on impact…”
—-
So what are you actually suggesting? They flew on water? or some other non-flamable stuff????
please be logical . how can you say there were less fuel . Actually whe the dispetcer planned the flight , they excatly calculated un-acceptable weather condıtıons or un-acceptable posıtion . They are addıng holdıng fuel , divert fuel and etc.. so ın that flıght there would not be less fuel .
Now let me think .. this is the same AC that mentioned on the radio he believes in aliens in Area 51, that crop-circles are made by extraterestrials and 911 was an inside job?
Well. That confirms your outstanding and objective credibility then. Fuel shortage it is.
Warning to all readers: please put on your aluminum caps before furhter investigation. The government is reading your brain-waves through your cell-phone.
looks like you found teh solution, did you inform the autohrities yet??
Like in a car, there are sensors to control air/fuel mix. In cars, oxigen sensors measure the level of fuel burning compared to airintake. Under normal conditions the mix will not drop below a level causing significant loss of thrust. In foggy conditions with too low octane grade kerosine by some mistake, from the supplier, the software might give a wrong interpretation of data, making things rather worse than better. From the exhaust it gets different data than what they are supposed to read, due to the combination of too much moisture (caused by SUDDEN EXTREME foggy conditions), In the old times before electronic injection, the air/fuel mix was set by the carburator and during start with a choke/ignition booster. Could it be that under the foggy circumstances, with too low grade kerosine, for maintening a rich mix, thrust was lost and thrust response trailed to such extend that crew thought of empty tank, whereas the fuel level meter could indicate otherwise.
This also makes me think of a leak in the exhaust system, that would cause different data fed to the computer control management system, to cut down the fuel component during a vital part of the flight, when resetting or switching between auto and manual can become fatal. So it is more factors together, causing loss of immediate rapid thrust. To prevent such a situation it is obvius to include prior to landing stage, a thust test simulation, that the pilot has to confirm being up to par. If not or insufficient, a second overruling setting can be opted that according to actual measurng provides the thrust the pilot desires at a certain throttle level. I think that while the pilot communicated the second pilot or board mechanic shouted to the pilot: “EMPTY TANK SIR”. Software was fooled somehow to misinterpret data. An alternative would be interference or disrupting with heavy cloaked dirt or a broken off internal part in the tank system blocking the nozzle at some stage during descending flight pattern. Added to the foggy conditions fuel mix got to lean compared to air component.
There must be a simply logical but far-fetched explanation, that places a pilot during landing procedure, in a running out of options position.
those claiming the reason of the crash is lack of fuel should be idiot or something!!! are u crazy people! do u really think that pilots were so stubit that they could not recognise it or it was allowed to fly with less fuel. By the way it was announced by the authorities that the plane had more than enough fuel to fly to Amsterdam from Ä°stanbul during the accident. So there is no reason to claim this anymore!
Get a life !
What a complete load of ill-informed, infantile rumour mongering and baseless speculation. It could only appear on a kid’s blog.
Go back to school and leave the grown ups to get on with investigating the real causes of this tragedy.
You say accusations would not be prudent, yet you are basically accusing them of not having enough fuel on board………
There are enough aviation sites with 737NG rated pilots who are dismayed at this exact speculation. Let’s wait till the investigation is complete huh?
Oh yeah, have you spoken to the guy who fueled the a/c in IST? How about the dispatcher?
Adam –> Je bent echt een imbiciel! Hou gewoon lekker je mond als je niet weet waar je het over hebt.. wat een verhaal… je verbaasd me wederom!
[...] possible that the fuel tanks remained intact, but unlikely. So why was there no fire? There are several unconfirmed reports that fuel starvation is to blame. The FAA has put higher flammability [...]
A lack of fire DOES NOT CONFIRM fuel starvation! As a matter of fact… pax accounts seem to CONFIRM that never happened, since ALL of them claim they heard the engine spool up seconds before impact, which sounds like a recovery of sorts was attempted.
I find it very unprofessional for you to be spreading this kind of info obtained out of your “secret” sources.
Farewell.
Let me add some more speculations and questions based on simple logic of a nonexpert.
1. First and most importantly; looking at the condition and position of the wreck one gets the impression that this was a succesfull emergency landing that saved many lives. Sorry that the pilots payed with their lives.
2. Shortage of fuel does not seem very logical to me for reasons already stated above.
3. Bad visibility and fog could have interfered with an accurate approach (was ILS working correctly; perhaps not?),
4.Why was the aircraft directed to the Polderbaan (36L) instead of the regular Buitenveldertbaan (nr 27, with a Westerley wind)?
5. The flight path suggests that the pilots were making a sharp turn to the left , before they made a steep descent. from around 1500 tot 600 feets, This suggests either an engine failure or navigational error.
Hi Guys… I have personally flown on Turkish Airlines Many Many Many times…, I have always thought of them as professional airline, although abit paranoid about Cell Phones….I have Even been on TC-JGE several times, I always check the Aircraft reg when I board a plane///.. My opinion is slightly different from the “Did they Hedge Fuel” and “not put enough etc”…. I was thinking about a Fuel Leak and possibly mis-managment of the problem… if for instance thier was a leak in the centre tanks or a wingtank and fuel was inadvertantly transferred to the wrong side of the plane..then instead of conserving fuel you would simply be pumping it out of the Aircraft..and when the imbalance was noticed it may be toooo late… the point is: all possibilities will be explored and the Data available and parameters recorded will tell us exactly what the real condition of the plane and systems were at the time of the acccident… I work for an airline and I am very cautious regarding speculation, but it does look like lack of fuel and he stalled on final…god bless them all… I also wonder about the winds at altitude? and If they knew about their situation earlier why they did not divert… each scenario raises many more questions… lets wait and see… tbp-Bahrain…Hi Adam!!
An additional bit of Information…I have been on Turkish AL with an inflight emergency…before… B737-400 (older Aircraft) a little more than a year ago… the crew did eventually make a cabin announcement and it was very abrubt and short… (”We have Preesure Problem…We turn Back”)…. believe me this was evident long before the captain made the announcement… but in the end Turkish AL (THY) was very Professional in handeling the situation and did everything right…I would fly on them again tomorrow…..the presidence of order is always… FLY the Aircraft…Navigate the Aircraft…Comunicate…we say FLY/Navigate/Communicate… so it appears their was no time to communicate messages to the Cabin… Once again…we wait… It could have been Navigational problems with the ILS reviever in the Aircraft…or even Birds..(again..)…time will elighten all of us,,,, cheers and once again God Bless them all….tbp-Bahrain
Fuel starvation seems very unlogical since many eyewittnesses aboard the plane actually heard the engines spool up during the stall. Also one of them comments, the cabin-lights went out upon impact. Since the engines power electrical systems as the cabin-lighting, we can fairly surely say the engines were at least running on impact.
On ATC-tapes available so far (during the Rekken A approach and final to 18R) there’s never heard the mandatory fuel-emergency declaration by the pilots. The 737-800 surely tells you way in advance if you’re going to run out fuel, be it the Flight Data Computer or the EICAS. The pilots only mention a speed 250 knots to ATC during approach-phase from ARTIP to Spijkerboor VOR. ATC tells them 250 is okay for the approach (usually approach-speed within 25 nm of the airport is restricted to 220 kts). This is the only anomily during the otherwise textbook approach to 18R, but it is very common for pilots to receive the so-called ‘high speed approved’ if traffic warrants. This is no indication whatsoever there was not enough fuel onboard.
More likely causes seem to me a sudden technical problem with one of the control-surfaces of plane (elevators, rudder or ailerons) or perhaps even an improper altimeter-setting (left it on 1013 HPa for example). Since it was low overcast and slightly foggy during approach, pilots therefor very well might have thought to be higher than they actually were. Nevertheless the 737 has a radar-altimeter and several aural warnings which sound if the plane gets too low too soon. The pilots should beforehand have been warned with the ‘glideslope-glideslope’ warning, indicating they were below the glidepath.
What is clear from the many witness-accounts is that the plane stalled, and therefore at least an improper (too low) power-setting must have been applied in the final stages before landing. The Flight Data Recorder will soon enough tell wether the engines were controlled by hand or still on autothrottle, the latter of which could have malfunctioned. Fuel starvation imho can be thrown right out of the window as a probable cause. There’s too much information already contradicting that cause.
@Armandox.
An additonal data point, ATC vectors them from ARTIP to SPL, but the craft remains on course for SPY. ATC then apparently sees they are off track several minutes later and vectors them on a heading of 265. Looking at the Google earth track, it appears there was confusion about the direction to take after ARTIP, they seem to be on track for SPY and even ’swerve’ around lelystad to the south before continuing n a direct track to SPY.
This could mean there was confusion on the flight deck, and possibly ATC, not unthinkable with 3 crewmembers, of which one is rumoured to have been ‘in training’ for this type of A/C.
Confusion can easily get a crew ‘behind the aircraft’ and domino into more confusion and problems.
This doesn’t translate into fuel starvation, but then again, that’s just what I’ve been told by reliable sources. It is not my deduction by any means.
AC
They are now talking about turbulence caused by another large plane from Brazil that landed earlier.
There should have been about 3 minutes between both landings, but the Turkish TV claims it was much shorter.
This would why nobody saw this coming.
The flight control tower should have allowed enough time between both landings.
Has the previous landing aircraft been confirmed? There seems to be speculation that it was a B757 which landed prior to their approach.
Wake turbulence could also have been a factor. Several people talked about a ’shudder’ or ’sweep’ manouver by the plane which is concurrent with a turbulence-situation. However wake-turbulence more often is a bigger factor during take-offs (higher power-settings etc.) than during landing. Nevertheless a minimum of 3 minutes separation must be applied between so called ‘heavies’ and smaller aircraft. Wake turbulence could very well be one of the causes and going on what people on the plane witnessed very probable. Perhaps ATC-tapes can shed some light on which flight preceded TK1951 on 18R? As a B757 is classified ‘heavy’ this is one of the things the investigation surely will focus on.
I also want to remark that if the time between an eventual ‘heavy’ and TK1951 was too short, this could not be accounted to tower. In that case the approach-controller should have mantained appropriate spacing. Tower usually gets the planes between 5 and 10 miles out, and already established on the ILS. Basically they only give the landing-clearance and the last wind-conditions at runway threshold (for landing aircraft). If the 737 was too short behind a heavy, very little could have been done about it by tower, other than issuing a go-around.
Contrary to seeming popular belief, with no fuel an Airbus still glides.
By coincidence I was listening in to EHAM when it all happened, there was no sign from the airplane crew that anything was wrong.
They did give some downdraft warnings prior and post crash during the day, which is an actual explanation for the dropping like a brick behavior, so is a microburst, out of fuel though is not.
(should have had a larger debris dispersal pattern and a longer trail on the ground, because a gliding plane out of fuel still has a lot of forward momentum, not like a brick.)
Maybe we should let the experts gather the evidence and information first before deciding what happened.
(on a personal note, checking the radar glide path of the flight in google earth, the slope seems to be off from the beginning, following the line of descent after his last tur would have had him on the ground bfore the runway regardless, he did not seem te compensate.
Kind of familiar of ils failure but 18L has been n use on the same day again and since , without any glidescope malfunction reports.
(for the curious, 1,5 hous later KLM561 (Airbus A330-200) inbound reported in with a hydraulics failure preventing them from taxiing after landing, emergency services were put on standby again just in case, the flight landed safely and spooled down engines on the runway after which it was towed. The cntroller remarked something akin to “Great we can have that too in Dutsch and a synical tone.)
About the disappeared recordings, they are pretty much everywhere on the web, you might have more luck on dutch sites for the audio and radar data.
There’s a kml for google earth that lets you view radar traffic aboe schiphol live (part of anti noise pollution efforts) they also have a kml with the stored flight path of the turkish airlines flight.
(post is a reply to article)
bah need edit button ^^ many typo’s sorry
@ the people that are saying we can’t discuss the rumors: I think it’s great we can!
Can I only talk about facts..? That would be boring and very uninteresting for most people I think.
The problem lies with the people that believe absolutely everything you tell them.
I’m gonna be discussing these sort of things for a long time ahead. If I wouldn’t do that, I would become dumb and would start believe everything every commission/investigation tells me.. That would not be good…
@ David: a recent recording, including altutude/speed, was posted at: http://www.vlieghinder.nl/reacties.php?id=5156_0_1_0_C
Curry’s fuel starvation claim to be false. Plane had thousands of liters of fuel left.
http://www.parool.nl/parool/nl/224/Binnenland/article/detail/189508/2009/02/28/Ramptoestel-had-kerosine.dhtml
Hope he is brave enough to admit he was a bit premature in his claims.
BULLSHIT
i think the reason why it fall down is due to a fat kid in the forward rows.. no please… why even thinking about it. in 1 to 3 weeks, they will give you a report
Usually, there are multiple links in chain of such accidents. In my opinion, problem started in the aircraft. Crew caught unprepared during the final approach; low speed, low altitude, less time to maneuver. They tried to recover (or may be they initiated autopilot again), nose pitch up, no lift and dropped down. I am not sure if pilots would do full nose pitch up in such cases, because it’s more practical to use throttle to control vertical speed, which is what that aircraft was losing. There is more suspicion upon ATC than on crew but I think plane itself had a technical problem, which caught crew unprepared.
First part of the report will be public on Wednesday, I heard.
I flew with this plane from Oslo to Istanbul last summer. It was a wonderful holiday! I clearly remember its name because other passengers behind me tried to pronounce its name multiple times. I don’t remember most AC names, but this one, drew attention.
[...] Ook op Twitter blijven berichten met het keyword Schiphol doorsijpelen. Zelf complottheorie-fanaat Adam Curry heeft er zijn zegje totaal ongefundeerd over [...]
http://www.nu.nl/algemeen/1927033/piloten-negeerden-technisch-probleem.html
Yo, sukkel. Het was de hoogtemeter! Het is niet verstandig zomaar wat te roepen…
Black box now indicated that radar altimeter was not functioning properly and gave incorrect low reading.
Does this mean that pilots were approaching on autopilot that automatically and abruptly translatied incorrect low altitude in lower throttle settings? In turn leading to an abrupt loss in height? Then, on the very last moment pilots tried to correct the manoeuvre with more throttle and nose up, resulting in stall
Sounds like a horrible scenario to me!
There Are No Secrets, Only Information You Don’t Yet Have; well this is cleary a case of information you dont have
The ultimate reason for the stall was lack of fuel flow. Starvation is thus correct. No difference between having no fuel and havinf throttles retarded to such low revs that it took 3 seconds to spool up the engines, too late.
And btw, anyone who believes this horseshit report will be amazed when the truth comes out, if they even release the raw data, which I doubt. Freedom of information requests have already been denied.
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